has played an increasing role on the African continent through trade, aid,
military training and paramilitary security. Analysts say the future of that
relationship will be tested as Russia’s tensions with the West escalate amid
the Ukrainian conflict.
South African government condemned Russia’s action in a statement, saying “it
is dismayed at the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine” and “calls on Russia
to immediately withdraw its forces from Ukraine in line with the United Nations
African countries remained quiet Thursday as Russian forces pushed into
has increased its presence on the continent in recent years and is scheduled to
host a Russia-Africa summit this November.
of how African nations react to Russia’s invasion going forward, analysts say
the continent will feel repercussions.
Filatova is the professor at Russia’s Higher School of Economics University.
it be the new cold war, or will it be the new hot war? We still do not know.
But whatever it is, Africa is one, is going to be one of the victims of it,”
reliant on imported oil and gas like South Africa will feel the pain of
African countries that import grains from Ukraine will feel disruptions in
supply and price.
conflict could also impact the availability of funding and resources for
international development and aid that many African countries rely on.
Kachur is a researcher at the Centre for Sustainability Transitions at South
Africa’s Stellenbosch University.
also going to create a long-term distraction from and attention from the
sustainable development goals,” Kachur said. “So we can expect the budgets
of states around the world will be gearing towards more militarization and not
the developmental goals.”
conflict not only risks disruptions to aid, but also military and peacekeeping
support on the continent.
Bax is the deputy director for the International Crisis Group in Johannesburg.
lot of attention will be taken away from conflicts that are quite urgent here
in Africa, such again as the Sahel, the conflict in Mozambique and the conflict
in Ethiopia,” said Bax. “A lot of diplomatic efforts will have to be
put in the Ukraine crisis now and has already been put in – to the detriment of
other crises here in Africa.”
the conflict could also bring opportunities.
says African leaders should call for changes in global power structures,
especially at the United Nations.
is of of five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.
is an opportunity to show that U.N. system is ineffective if the aggressor is
one of the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council,” Kachur said.
“…. This is a good time for African countries to talk about the change
of the global system of international relations and to redistribute power.”
note it’s too early to be sure how the conflict in Ukraine will affect
countries thousands of kilometers away. But to the extent the world order is
being altered, Africa will feel the impact.