Dagaalka Ukraine: Halis intee la eg ayaan ugu jirnaa hubka nuclear-ka?


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Madaafiicda nuclear-ka Ruushka ee biyaha hoostooda ku socda - sawir laga jaray muuqaalka Wakaaladda Wararka Ruushka ee Tass

Xigashada Sawirka, Getty Images

Qoraalka sawirka,

Madaafiicda nuclear-ka Ruushka ee biyaha hoostooda ku socda – sawir laga jaray muuqaalka Wakaaladda Wararka Ruushka ee Tass

Maalintii Axadda, Madaxweyne Putin ayaa amar ku siiyay taliska militerigiisa in ay heegan geliyaan “awoodda ugu sarreysa” oo uu ka mid yahay hubka nuclear-ka. Balse tallaabadaas maxay ka dhigan tahay?

Gebi ahaanba ma kala cadda arrintu, sida ay sheegeen khubarada wax falanqeeya ee Reer Galbeedka. Saraakiisha UK waxa ay sheegeen in luuqadda uu Putin adeegsaday aysan waafaqsaneyn waxyaabaha ay ka fahansan yihiin heerarka diyaar garowga iyo heegan gelinta hubka nuclear-ka Ruushka.

Qaar ka mid ah khubaradu waxa ay u maleynayaan in amarka uu bixiyay Putin uu yahay mid ka sarreeya heerka ugu hooseeya, ee ah “kan joogtada ah” marka laga hadlayo hubka nuclear-ka, haddana uu gaadhsiiyay heerka xiga ee ah “in madaxa kor loo qaado” (Waxaana kasii sarreeya labo heer oo kala ah “khatarta militeriga” iyo “riditaanka”, oo ah ficilka ugu dambeeya ee aan waxba laga reebin.

Tallaabo kasta waxa ay ka dhigan tahay in hubka nuclear-ka loo sii diyaariyo isticmaalid.

Hase yeeshee, dad badan waxa ay aaminsan yihiin in tallaabada uu Putin qaaday ay tahay oo kaliya mid ku aaddan baaqa dadweynaha, kana duwan rabitaan ujeeddadiisu tahay in la adeegsado hubka noocaas ah, maadaama uu Putin og yahay in Reer Galbeedku ay nuclear ku aargoosanayaan haddii uu isticmaalo.

Wasiirka Gaashaandhigga ee UK, Ben Wallace, ayaa bidhaamiyay inuu aaminsan yahay in hadalka Ruushka uu yahay mid “afka uun ku eg”.

Taas micnaheedu ma aha in aysan khatar jirin, xaaladdana aad baa isha loogu hayn doonaa.

Ma waxay ahayd digniin cusub?

Isbuucii lasoo dhaafay, Putin waxa uu ka digay in haddii ay dalal kale soo farogeliyaan qorshaha Ruushka ay wajihi doonaan cawaaqib “aysan waligood horay ula kulmin”. Hadalkaas waxaa loo fasirtay in uu ahaa digniin uu Nato ugu jeedinayay in aysan farogelin militeri oo toos ah ku yeelanin dagaalka Ukraine.

Nato mar walba waxa ay caddeyneysay in aysan arrintaas sameyn doonin, iyagoo og in taas ay horseedi karto dagaal toos ah oo dhex mara iyaga iyo Ruushka, kaasoo sababi kara in uu dhaco dagaal la isu adeegsado hubka nuclear-ka.

Maxaa keenay digniinta?

Putin waxa uu sheegay in tallaabada uu qaaday ay jawaab u tahay “hadallo gardarro ah”. Maalintii Isniinta, madaxtooyada Ruushka ee Kremlin waxa ay sheegtay in hadallada gardarrada ah ay yihiin kuwo ka yimid mas’uuliyiinta Reer Galbeedka, oo ay ka mid tahay Wasiirka Arrimaha Dibadda ee UK, Liz Truss, oo ah kuwo ku saabsan sida ay suuragal u tahay in ay isku dhacaan Ruushka iyo Nato.

Saraakiisha Reer Galbeedku waxa ay sidoo kale aaminsan yihiin in digniinta ay sabab u tahay maadaama Putin ay xaaladda Ukraine ku noqotay si uusan fileynin.

Waxaa laga yaabaa in uu dhayal saday inta ay la ekaan kartay iskacaabinta uu kala kulmay Ukraine, taasoo ah si ka badan sidii la moodayay.

Waxaa kale oo sida uu u qiyaasay ka badan midnimada ay Reer Galbeedka ka muujiyeen jawaabaha adag ee cunaqabateynta ah. Arrintaas ayaa ku kalliftay Putin u uu ka fikiro qorshe kale iyo hadal ka adag sidii hore.

“Tani waa calaamad muujineysa xanaaq, isku buuq iyo niyad jab,” ayuu yidhi janaraal mar dhow ka howl gabay militeriga Britain, oo la hadlay wariyaha BBC-da ee maqaalkan qoray.

Danjiraha Mareykanka u fadhisa Qaramada Midoobay, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, ayaa sheegtay in hadalka Putin uu yahay isku day uu ku doonayo in uu marmarsiiyo ugu helo dagaalka Ukraine, isagoo sheegaya in uusan ahayn waddanka dardarrada sameeyay balse uu yahay midka halista ku jira ee doonaya inuu isdifaaco.

Haddii dhankaas laga eego, digniinta nuclear-ka waa mid uu ku xoojinayo farriinta uu u dirayo shacabkiisa. Dhan kale haddii laga eegana, waa in Putin uu ka walwalsan yahay sida ay Reer Galbeedku u qorsheynayaan in ay gargaar militeri siiyaan Ukraine, waxa uuna uga digayaa in aysan caawinaadda badinin.

Qaab kale haddii loo fiiriyana, waxa uu Putin ka walaacsan yahay cunaqabateynnada, kuwaasoo uu sheegay in ujeeddada laga leeyahay ay tahay sidii xasilooni darro looga dhalin lahaa dalkiisa, xukunkana looga tuuri lahaa dowladdiisa.

Balse haddii la isku celceliyo, arrintu waxa ay u muuqataa in ay tahay digniin uu Nato ku siinayo in haddii ay dagaalka toos ugu lug yeelato ay xaaladdu faraha ka bixi doonto.

Weerarka Ruushka ee Ukraine: Warar dheeraad ah

Maxay tahay halista?

Xitaa haddii hanjabaadda Putin ay tahay digniin, oo aysan ahayn baaq uu ku sheegayo in uu rabo isticmaalka hubkan, waxaa mar walba jirta halis ku aaddan in dhinacyadu ay is dhayalsadaan haddii mid uu kan kale khalad ka fahmo ama ay xaaladdu gacanta ka baxdo.

Waxaa walaac laga qabaa in Putin uu noqdo hoggaamiye la go’doomiyay oo waddo kale aysan u furneyn, halka tiro yar oo ka mid ah la-taliyeyaashiisu ay doonayaan in ay runta u sheegaan.

Dadka qaar waxay ka baqayaan in go’aan qaadashadiisa ay noqoto mid aan la saadaalin karin. Qaar kalena waxa ay rajo ka qabaan in xitaa haddii uu go’aan xad dhaaf ah qaado aysan amarka qaadan doonin taliyeyaasha hoose.

Halista loogu jiro in hubka nuclear-ka la adeegsado xilli kasta sare ayay u kici kartaa haddase wali way hooseysaa.

Sidey Reer Galbeedku u jawaabayaan?

Ilaa hadda, dowladaha Reer Galbeedka waxay ka taxaddarayeen in aysan xaaladda sii xumeynin, ha ahaato ficilka ay hadda sameynayaan iyo waxa la saadaalin karo labadaba.

Militeriga Mareyknaka waxa uu leeyahay diyaar garow u gaar ah, dhawaanna afhayeenka Aqalka Cad, Jen Psaki, waxa ay sheegtay in aysan “jirin sabab” loo baddalo habka diyaargarowga hubka nuclear-ka Mareykanka.

UK waxa ay leedahay maraakiib gujis ah oo xambaara nuclear-ka oo badda ku jira, loomana maleynayo in ay wax taallo ah oo loo jeedo qaaddo. Ujeeddadu waa in aan hadalka Ruushka loo arkin mid weyn si aysan xiisadda usii kicin.

Waqti xaadirkan ma jirto xiisad hubka nuclear-ka ah, mana aha in ay dhalato, sida ay sheegeen saraakiisha Reer Galbeedka.

Reer Galbeedku ma ogaan doonaan waxa uu Ruushku sameynayo?

Wasiirka Gaashaandhigga ee UK, Ben Wallace, ayaa BBC-da u sheegay in UK aysan arkin wali wax isbaddal dhinaca dhaqaaqa ah oo lagu sameeyay hubka nuclear-ka Ruushka.

Arrintaas ayaa si dhow loola socon doonaa, sida ay xaqiijiyeen ilo wareedyo laga helay sirdoonka dhexdooda.

Intii uu socday Dagaalkii Qaboobaa, qalab weyn oo sirdoonku uu leeyahay ayaa laga sameeyay Reer Galbeedka dhexdooda si uu ula socdo dhaqdhaqaaqa nuclear-ka Ruushka.

Qalabka Satellites-ka ayaa qabtay wadahadallo, waxyaabo kalena waa la odorosay si loo eego haddii uu jiro isbaddal – sida in hub la diyaarinayo ama bambooyin la rakibayo – taasoo diginin ay ka imaan doonto.

Inta badan qalabkaas wali sidii ayay u jiraan, Reer Galbeedkuna waxa ay hadda si dhow ula socon doonaan dhaqdhaqaaqyada Ruushka, si ay u fahmaan in ay wax isbaddalayaan. Ilaa haddana wax astaamo ah ma jiraan.


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